At the local elections on May 22nd voters in the London Borough of Ealing will be selecting 69 Councillors in twenty three wards to represent them in the Council.

Ealing currently is Labour controlled. There are 38 Labour councillors, 23 Conservative, 5 Liberal Democrat, 2 Independents and 1 vacant seat. 35 seats are required to control the Council. Labour won 40 seats at the last election

The key 'battleground' seats in the election are likely to be Northolt Mandeville, Perivale, Greenford Green and Elthorne although who takes individual seats across Acton wards is also likely to be decisive.

The Conservatives need to reverse the 3.8% swing against them at the last election. Assuming consistency with the 2010 result this would give them the eleven extra seats they need to control the Council.

Assuming the Conservatives regain the seats they have lost to defections they need to make a net gain of 6 seats. According to our analysis this would require a swing of at least 2.6%

Conservative Party's Top Twelve Targets
Ward (Seat)	Swing needed	Comment
Northolt Mandeville 3	0.1%	Just 3 votes either way decided this seat last time out
Acton Central 3	0.8%
Northolt Mandeville 2	0.9%
Perivale 3	1.2%
Elthorne 2	1.5%	Also a target for Labour
South Acton 3	1.7%	Also a target for the Lib Dems
Southfield 3	1.9%
Perivale 1	2.5%	Assuming Lib Dems retain their seats Tories would need to win here for the Council to go to 'No Overall Control'
Northolt Mandeville 1	2.7%
Acton Central 2	3.2%
Elthrone 1	3.7%	If Tories win this seat it would be likely that they had control of the Council
East Acton 3	4.0%

*The number next to the ward is the position in the vote for that ward achieved by the incumbent in 2010.

Labour's Top Ten Targets
Ward (Seat)	Swing Needed
Elthorne 3	0.1%
Hobbayne 3	0.2%
Walpole 3	0.4%
Perivale 2	0.6%
Elthorne 2	1.5%
Greenford Green 3	2.7%
Greenford Green 2	3.6%
Walpole 2	4.2%
Greenford Green 1	4.9%
Cleveland 3	5.5%

Overall results of 2010 election for Ealing Council

Party	Seats	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Votes %	Votes	+/-
Labour	40	12	0	+12	36.8	56,834	+3.8
Conservative	24	0	14	-14	34.0	52,417	-3.8
Liberal Democrat	5	2	0	+2	20.8	32,105	+1.3
Green	0	0	0	0	6.0	9,200	-1.1
Independent	0	0	0	0	1.2	1,887	-0.1
Christian Peoples	0	0	0	0	0.4	457	+0.1
UKIP	0	0	0	0	0.3	455	+0.2
Libertarian	0	0	0	0	0.1	93	+0.1

The swing is calculated by first comparing the lowest vote in 2010 of a successful candidate with the highest vote of an unsuccessful candidate and then the second lowest vote of a successful candidate with the corresponding opposition vote. For instance, a Councillor elected third in a ward will be compared to the vote for the fourth candidate if they were from a different party so the third seat in a ward is always likely to need the smallest swing to change hands.

Voting also takes place for the European Parliament on May 22nd. See here